Do heat pumps actually work in a Michigan winter?

The short answer is yes, and it is a more interesting answer than it was ten years ago.

What changed

Older heat pumps lost most of their capacity around 30 degrees and fell back on electric resistance heat, which in this state meant an unpleasant January electricity bill. That reputation is what most people are remembering.

Cold climate heat pumps with variable speed compressors hold useful capacity down to single digits and keep working below zero. They are a genuinely different machine.

Where they make sense here

• A house with no gas service, replacing electric resistance or propane. The running cost difference is large.
• Adding air conditioning to a house that has none, since the heat pump does both for close to the price of an air conditioner alone.
• Paired with a gas furnace as dual fuel, where the heat pump carries the mild months and the furnace takes the coldest ones. That is the setup that suits this climate best.

Where they do not

• A house with cheap natural gas and a furnace that has years left in it. The arithmetic rarely works.
• A house with ductwork that is already struggling. A heat pump moves more air at a lower temperature, so it is less forgiving of bad ducts, not more.
• An electrical service with no capacity left, where the panel upgrade can rewrite the budget.

The thing that decides it

The balance point: the outdoor temperature below which the backup heat has to take over. Set it properly and a dual fuel system is efficient and quiet. Set it badly and it either runs expensive electric heat too often or leaves the house cool. It is worth asking any contractor how they will set yours.